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PHEVs produce nearly 5x greater planet-heating emissions than lab-reported figures indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Gap In Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs emit just one-fifth less CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to research carried out by a advocacy organization. This differs significantly with lab tests, which assumed a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Analysts examined information from onboard energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are increasing, while official emissions are decreasing,” stated a senior researcher involved in the report. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a significant issue. Consequently, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Primary Factors Driving the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of miles driven in electric power compared to overall distance. They determined that just 27% of travel was completed in electric mode, while official estimates assumed 84%.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than lab estimates. This happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful enough to operate independently, resulting to engines using fossil fuels for almost one-third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed four major automaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing compliance with European Union fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs would pay approximately €500 extra per year in operating expenses than would be assumed under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are obviously way off the mark,” commented a transport analyst. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and saving costs. In reality, PHEVs are little better than standard gas and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Pressure

Hybrid cars have lately been drawn back into policy discussions as carmakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ standards. A planned ban on sales of new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and resistance from EU countries with large automotive manufacturing.

Some senior officials have proposed PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” solution to include in the legislation.

An independent energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after a long period in which segments of the automotive sector claimed there was too little information to accurately assess real-world emissions.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the difference in official and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much greater than for gasoline or conventional cars,” they said. “All policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost care and considering this data.”